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Volume 9, Issue 6, December 2020, Page: 109-117
The Impact of Infective Immigrants and Self Isolation on the Dynamics and Spread of Covid-19 Pandemic: A Mathematical Modeling Study
Molalegn Ayana, Department of Mathematics, Dilla College of Teacher Education, Dilla, Ethiopia
Tsige Hailegiorgis, Department of Biology, Kotebe Metropolitan University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Kassahun Getnet, Department of Mathematics, Hawassa University, Hawassa, Ethiopia
Received: Aug. 23, 2020;       Accepted: Sep. 18, 2020;       Published: Nov. 23, 2020
DOI: 10.11648/j.pamj.20200906.12      View  98      Downloads  88
Abstract
The COVID−19 pandemic is considered as the biggest global threat worldwide because of millions of confirmed infections, accompanied by hundred thousand deaths over the world. WHO is working with its networks of researchers and other experts to coordinate global work on surveillance, epidemiology, modeling, diagnostics, clinical care and treatment, and other ways to identify, manage the disease and limit onward transmission. Mathematical modeling has become an important tool in analyzing the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases. The present study describes the transmission pathways in the infection dynamics, and emphasizes the role of exposed (probably asymptomatic infected) and infected immigrants and the impact of self isolation techniques in the transmission and spread of covid−19 with no home to home check up to develop a mathematical model and show the impact of infected immigrants and self isolation on the dynamics and spread of covid-19. In our model we study the epidemic patterns of Covid−19, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The present model is developed making some reasonable modifications in the corresponding epidemic SCR model by considering symptomatic and asymptomatic infective immigrants as well as self isolation measures. Our numerical results indicate that the corona virus infection would remain pandemic, unless the responsible body takes Self isolation measure and intervention programs and introducing home to home check up of covid−19 to reduce the transmission of the disease from asymptomatic infected (exposed) individual to the susceptible individual. Among the model parameters the exposed and infected self isolation rate and exposed (probably asymptomatic infected) immigration rate are very sensitive parameters for the spread of the virus. Disease free equilibrium point is found and endemic equilibrium state is identified. It is shown that the disease free equilibrium point is locally and globally asymptotically stable if R0<1, and unstable if it is R0>1. Simulation study is conducted using MATLAB ode45.
Keywords
Self Isolation, Home to Home Check Up, Asymptomatic Infected, Symptomatic Infected, Corona Virus Pandemic, Covid-19
To cite this article
Molalegn Ayana, Tsige Hailegiorgis, Kassahun Getnet, The Impact of Infective Immigrants and Self Isolation on the Dynamics and Spread of Covid-19 Pandemic: A Mathematical Modeling Study, Pure and Applied Mathematics Journal. Vol. 9, No. 6, 2020, pp. 109-117. doi: 10.11648/j.pamj.20200906.12
Copyright
Copyright © 2020 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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